To save lives, and save the economy, we need another lockdown.
By Michael T. Osterholm and Neel Kashkari in the NYT
Dr. Osterholm is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Mr. Kashkari is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
More than a third of all U.S. coronavirus cases occurred in July.Credit…Frederic J. Brown/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
In just weeks we could almost stop the viral fire that has swept across this country over the past six months and continues to rage out of control. It will require sacrifice but save many thousands of lives.
We believe the choice is clear. We can continue to allow the coronavirus to spread rapidly throughout the country or we can commit to a more restrictive lockdown, state by state, for up to six weeks to crush the spread of the virus to less than one new case per 100,000 people per day.
That’s the point at which we will be able to limit the increase in new cases through aggressive public health measures, just as other countries have done. But we’re a long way from there right now.
The imperative for this is clear because as a nation what we have done so far hasn’t worked. Some 160,000 people have died, and in recent days, roughly a thousand have died a day. An estimated 30 million Americans are collecting unemployment.
On Jan. 30, when the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a public health emergency, there were 9,439 reported cases worldwide, most in China, and only six reported cases in the United States.
On July 30, six months later, there were 17 million cases reported worldwide, including 676,000 deaths. The United States had four million reported cases and 155,000 deaths. More than a third of all U.S. cases occurred during July alone.
And the next six months could make what we have experienced so far seem like just a warm-up to a greater catastrophe. With many schools and colleges starting, stores and businesses reopening, and the beginning of the indoor heating season, new case numbers will grow quickly.
Why did the United States’ Covid-19 containment response fail, particularly compared with the successful results of so many nations in Asia, Europe and even our neighbor Canada?
Simply, we gave up on our lockdown efforts to control virus transmission well before the virus was under control. Many other countries didn’t let up until the number of cases was greatly reduced, even in places that had extensive outbreaks in March and April. Once the number of new cases in those areas was driven to less than one per 100,000 people per day as a result of their lockdowns, limiting the increase of new cases was possible with a combination of testing, contact tracing, case isolation and extensive monitoring of positive tests.
The United States recorded its lowest seven-day average since March 31 on May 28, when it was 21,000 cases, or 6.4 new cases per 100,000 people per day. This rate was seven to 10 times higher than the rates in countries that successfully contained their new infections. While many countries are now experiencing modest flare-ups of the virus, their case loads are in the hundreds or low thousands of infections per day, not tens of thousands, and small enough that public health officials can largely control the spread.
In contrast, the United States reopened too quickly and is now experiencing around 50,000 or more new cases per day.
While cases are falling in the hard-hit areas of Arizona, California, Florida and Texas because of the imposition of some physical-distancing measures, they are rapidly increasing in a few of Midwestern states. In Minnesota, we just documented the most new cases in a one-week period since the pandemic began.
At this level of national cases — 17 new cases per 100,000 people per day — we simply don’t have the public health tools to bring the pandemic under control. Our testing capacity is overwhelmed in many areas, resulting in delays that make contact tracing and other measures to control the virus virtually impossible.
Don’t confuse short-term case reductions in some states as permanent. We made that mistake before. Some have claimed that the widespread use of masks is enough to control the pandemic, but let us face reality: Gov. Gavin Newsom of California issued a public masking mandate on June 18, a day when 3,700 cases were reported in the state. On July 25, the seven-day daily case average was 10,231. We support the wearing of masks by all Americans, but masking mandates and soft limitations on indoor crowds in places such as bars and restaurants are not enough to control this pandemic.
To successfully drive down our case rate to less than one per 100,000 people per day, we should mandate sheltering in place for everyone but the truly essential workers. By that, we mean people must stay at home and leave only for essential reasons: food shopping and visits to doctors and pharmacies while wearing masks and washing hands frequently. According to the Economic Policy Institute, 39 percent of workers in the United States are in essential categories. The problem with the March-to-May lockdown was that it was not uniformly stringent across the country. For example, Minnesota deemed 78 percent of its workers essential. To be effective, the lockdown has to be as comprehensive and strict as possible.
If we aren’t willing to take this action, millions more cases with many more deaths are likely before a vaccine might be available. In addition, the economic recovery will be much slower, with far more business failures and high unemployment for the next year or two. The path of the virus will determine the path of the economy. There won’t be a robust economic recovery until we get control of the virus.
If we do this aggressively, the testing and tracing capacity we’ve built will support reopening the economy as other countries have done, allow children to go back to school and citizens to vote in person in November. All of this will lead to a stronger, faster economic recovery, moving people from unemployment to work.
We know that a stringent lockdown can have serious health consequences for patients who can’t get access to routine care. But over the past six months, medical professionals have learned how to protect patients and staffs from spreading the coronavirus; therefore we should be able to maintain access to regular medical care during any new lockdown.
This pandemic is deeply unfair. Millions of low-wage, front-line service workers have lost their jobs or been put in harm’s way, while most higher-wage, white-collar workers have been spared. But it is even more unfair than that; those of us who’ve kept our jobs are actually saving more money because we aren’t going out to restaurants or movies, or on vacations. Unlike in prior recessions, remarkably, the personal savings rate has soared to 20 percent from around 8 percent in January.
Because we are saving more, we have the resources to support those who have been laid off. Typically when the government runs deficits, it must rely on foreign investors to buy the debt because Americans aren’t generating enough savings to fund it. But we can finance the added deficits for Covid-19 relief from our own domestic savings. Those savings end up funding investment in the economy. That’s why traditional concerns about racking up too much government debt do not apply in this situation. It is much safer for a country to fund its deficits domestically than from abroad.
Congress should be aggressive in supporting people who’ve lost jobs because of Covid-19. It’s not only the right thing to do but also vital for our economic recovery. If people can’t pay their bills, it will ripple through the economy and make the downturn much worse, with many more bankruptcies, and the national recovery much slower.
There is no trade-off between health and the economy. Both require aggressively getting control of the virus. History will judge us harshly if we miss this life- and economy-saving opportunity to get it right this time.
Michael T. Osterholm is a professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Neel Kashkari is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
Simon and Garfunkel’s “Sound Of Silence” is one of the best songs of all time and was inspired by Sanford “Sandy” Greenberg, Art Garfunkel roomate and best friend who lost his vision. Sanford released a moving new memoir named “Hello Darkness, My Old Friend: How Daring Dreams and Unyielding Friendship Turned One Man’s Blindness into an Extraordinary Vision for Life”.
Having inspired the lyrics “Hello Darkness my old friend, I’ve come to talk with you again,” he said that Garfunkel helped him to recover his will to live again after the blindness. “He lifted me out of the grave.” The 79 year-old man says that they met each other during their first week studying at the Columbia University in New York. “A young man wearing an Argyle sweater and corduroy pants and blond hair with a crew cut came over and said, ‘Hi, I’m Arthur Garfunkel’.”
“Every night Arthur and I would sing. He would play his guitar and I would be the DJ. The air was always filled with music. Still teenagers, they made a pact to always be there for each other in times of trouble. If one was in extremis, the other would come to his rescue,” he said.
Lay down
whatever is bothering you, breathe in the fresh air and LISTEN to this story.
Time is like a
river. You cannot touch the same water twice because the flow that has passed will never pass again.
Enjoy every moment of life.
As a bagpiper,
I play many gigs . Recently I was asked by a
funeral director to play at a
graveside service for a homeless man . He had no family or friends, so the service
was to be at a pauper’s cemetery in the Nova Scotia back country.
As I was not
familiar with the backwoods, I got lost and, being a typical man, I didn’t stop for
directions.
I finally
arrived an hour late and saw the funeral guy had evidently gone and the hearse
was nowhere in sight.
There were
only the diggers and crew left and they were eating lunch. I felt badly
and apologized to the men for being late.
I went to the
side of the grave and looked down and the vault lid was already in place.
I didn’t know what else to do so I started to
play.
The workers
put down their lunches and began to gather around.
I played out my heart and soul for this man
with no family and friends. I played like I’ve never played before for this homeless man.
And as I
played “Amazing Grace”, the workers began to weep. They wept, I
wept, we all wept together.
When I
finished, I packed up my bagpipes and started for my car. Though my head
was hung low, my heart was full.
As I opened
the door to my car, I heard one of the workers say,
“I never seen anything like that before,
and I’ve been putting in septic tanks for twenty years.”
By Debra Adams Simmons, HISTORY Executive Editor – National Geographic
Thanks to Gordon G. for sending this in.
President Lyndon B. Johnson summoned John Lewis to a private
meeting in the Oval Office on the morning of August 6, 1965. Later that day,
Johnson would sign the Voting Rights Act of 1965 into law in a ceremony
attended by Martin Luther King, Jr., Rosa Parks, and other noted civil rights
leaders.
First, though, Johnson wanted an introductory chat with
Lewis, who months earlier led a march across the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma,
Alabama, an event now known as Bloody Sunday. Lewis and nearly 600 peaceful
marchers were attacked by state troopers, a scene that horrified the nation and
pricked the conscience of many, including President Johnson.
This week marks the 55th anniversary of the signing of the
Voting Rights Act. Many, including President Barack Obama (above, delivering
the eulogy at Congressman Lewis’s funeral last week) say the best way to honor
Lewis is for government to uphold the voting rights he dedicated his life to
fighting for and for citizens to exercise those rights.
In his memoir, Walking with the Wind, Lewis recalled his
20-minute chat with President Johnson, and how his tone and demeanor differed
drastically from the one he adopted hours later when signing the bill.
“Johnson dominated the conversation, his legs propped on a
chair, his hands folded back behind his head,” Lewis wrote.
“Near the end of the meeting the President leaned forward
and said, ‘Now John, you’ve got to go back and get all those folks registered.
You’ve got to go back and get those boys by the balls.’ ”
Later that afternoon, Johnson waxed far more eloquent.
“So, through this act, and its enforcement, an important
instrument of freedom passes into the hands of millions of our citizens. But
that instrument must be used. Presidents and Congresses, laws and lawsuits can
open the doors to the polling places and open the doors to the wondrous rewards
which await the wise use of the ballot.
“But only the individual Negro, and all others who have been
denied the right to vote, can really walk through those doors, and can use that
right, and can transform the vote into an instrument of justice and
fulfillment,” Johnson said before signing the measure.
In 2013, the U.S. Supreme Court gutted a provision of the
landmark Voting Rights Act that allowed the government to oversee state voting
laws. The assault on the voting rights hasn’t stopped there. Several states
have embarked on ambitious purges of voter rolls, adopted strict identification
laws, and deliberately gerrymandered districts in attempts to dilute minority
voting strength.
President Obama, speaking at John Lewis’s
funeral last week, noted the tributes pouring in for the congressman, including
renaming the 2019 Voting Rights Act that passed the U.S. House of
Representatives last year but remains stalled in the Senate. Naming platitudes
are nice, Obama said, but measures that strengthen voter access are what’s
truly needed. Lewis would have agreed. That was his life’s mission.
Lauren Poyer is an assistant teaching professor in Scandinavian studies. She teaches courses in Scandinavian mythology and Vikings in contemporary culture, among other topics, and she is well steeped in all kinds of Nordic and Icelandic lore.
Lauren PoyerUniversity of Washington
Thanks to Ann Milam for finding this.So how do you feel about this name for our hockey team. As the author notes, ” I thought, “I can’t wait to go to a hockey game!” Can you imagine how much fun it will be to be in the crowd when the announcers yell, “Release the Kraken!” and the fans flails their arms like squid tentacles while the players skate out into the ice? I’m hoping for some tentacle-y homemade costumes, too.”
After word that the new Seattle hockey team would be named Seattle Kraken , UW News caught up with Poyer to learn more about some of the mythology behind Seattle’s newest cryptid creature.
The idea of mythical sea creatures in Nordic mythology dates back centuries. Why were sea creatures such a big part of ancient lore?
Stories about sea monsters are not unique to Scandinavia, but Scandinavian folklore certainly has a lot of them! People in medieval Scandinavia spent a lot of time by and on the sea. Oftentimes we think of the stories they tell about creatures like sea monsters as evidence that people in the past were less knowledgeable about their environment than we are today, but I would argue that the opposite is true. The average person in medieval Scandinavia would have known a lot about their local environment; they would have been familiar with using birds to navigate, for example, with using fish to estimate ocean depth, with reading the skies to predict weather, the list goes on. Stories about sea monsters, I think, reflect more than just a sense of mystery or fear of the open ocean: They reflect an understanding that living creatures in the sea, and even the sea itself, have their own knowledge and their own agendas, only some of which we humans will ever understand.A UW psychology professors explains the science behind real-life kraken here.
In Scandinavian folklore, the kraken wasn’t always an octopus-like creature. In medieval times, people believed the kraken was a giant whale. Can you tell us more?
The word kraken is a Scandinavian loanword into English, but it does not actually appear in the medieval written record in Scandinavia. Two different 13th-century Scandinavian texts use the name hafgufa (“sea-mist”) for a particular sea monster that lives at the bottom of the sea, which modern readers identify as the kraken. It’s important to note, though, that the earlier of these two texts, the Konungs skuggsjá, or King’s Mirror, which is a bit like a medieval encyclopedia, does not describe the kraken destroying ships. Instead, the kraken is just a very large sea creature that has a peculiar way of hunting: It opens its mouth very wide and regurgitates food to attract fish. Once the fish have gathered around its mouth, it slams its jaw shut and captures all of the surrounding fish in its mouth, which sounds a lot like whales and schools of fish all gathering to feast on krill. The later text, the legendary Örvar-Odds saga, describes a hafgufa that has been sent by an evil sorcerer to sink the hero’s ship. Medieval people loved high fantasy tales of adventure as much as we do!
By Jane E. Brody in the New York Times. Thanks to Put B. for finding this.
I’m a lifelong extrovert who readily establishes and relishes casual contacts with people I encounter during daily life: while walking my dog, shopping for groceries, working out at the Y, even sweeping my sidewalk. These ephemeral connections add variety to my life, are a source of useful information and often provide needed emotional and physical support. Equally important, they nearly always leave me with a smile on my face (although now hidden under a mask!).
In recent months, under stay-at-home orders because of the coronavirus pandemic, many people lost such daily encounters. I, on the other hand, have done my best to maintain as many of them as possible while striving to remain safe. With in-person time with family and close friends now limited by a mutual desire to avoid exposure to Covid-19, the brief socially distant contacts with people in my neighborhood, both those I’ve known casually for years and others I just met, have been crucial to my emotional and practical well-being and maybe even my health.
The benefits I associate with my casual connections were reinforced recently by a fortuitous find. During a Covid-inspired cleanup I stumbled upon a book in my library called “Consequential Strangers: The Power of People Who Don’t Seem to Matter … But Really Do.” Published 11 years ago, this enlightening tome was written by Melinda Blau, a science writer, and Karen L. Fingerman, currently a professor of psychology at the University of Texas, Austin, who studies the nature and effects of so-called weak ties that people have with others in their lives: the barista who fetches their coffee, the person who cuts their hair, the proprietor of the local market, the folks they see often at the gym or train station.
In an interview, Dr. Fingerman noted that casual connections with people encountered in the course of daily life can give people a feeling that they belong to a community, which she described as “a basic human need.”
As she and Ms. Blau wrote in their book, consequential strangers “are as vital to our well-being, growth, and day-to-day existence as family and close friends. Consequential strangers anchor us in the world and give us a sense of being plugged into something larger. They also enhance and enrich our lives and offer us opportunities for novel experiences and information that is beyond the purview of our inner circles. They are vital social connections — people who help you get through the day and make life more interesting.”
My tendency to “chat up” total strangers I meet in the course of just living has resulted in a slew of acquaintances who have filled my days with pleasantries, advice, information, needed assistance and, most important of all during this time of enforced semi-isolation, a valuable sense of connections to people who share my environment
Covid-19 lockdowns have reminded so many of us of how important our relationships are to our quality of life — not only relationships with the friends and family members we love and know well and who know us well, but also with more casual ones that help us maintain a positive outlook during dark and distressing times.
Dr. Fingerman’s research has also shown that people who are more socially integrated are also more active physically. “Being sedentary kills you,” she said. “You have to get up and move to be with the people you run into when exercising.” Consequential strangers also help your brain, she said, because “conversations are more stimulating than with people you know well.”
A fellow researcher in the field, Katherine L. Fiori, chairwoman of undergraduate psychology at Adelphi University who studies social networks of older adults, has found that activities that foster “weaker ties” than are formed with family and close friends foster greater life satisfaction and better emotional and physical health.
“The greater the number of weaker ties, the stronger the association with positive feelings and fewer depressed feelings,” Dr. Fiori said in an interview. “It’s clearly not the case that close ties are all that older adults need.”
And not just older adults, all adults. Dr. Fingerman said research has shown that, in general, “people do better when they have a more diverse group of people in their lives.” But as Dr. Fiori observed, “Unfortunately, Covid has severely curtailed our ability to maintain weaker ties. It can take a lot more effort to do this online.”
When Covid-19 descended with a fury on New York City, many people I knew who had second homes “escaped” the city in hopes of avoiding the virus. I, on the other hand, chose to stay in my Brooklyn neighborhood where everyday I encountered people I knew casually as well as others in my extended network of friends and acquaintances I’d made at the Y, in local stores and when walking and cycling in Prospect Park.
In my country house, especially during the dark cold days of early spring, I would have been far more isolated. Yes, I could walk my dog and ride my bike without having to wear a mask because I would have met almost no one else on route. But I would also have been deprived of conversations with the many “consequential strangers” I encountered daily during my outdoor excursions in Brooklyn, including the 7 p.m. “shout-out” in support of our essential workers.
To counter the loneliness and maintain her many casual connections, one of my Y buddies started a group email that not only filled in for the daily conversations she was missing but also gave her an ongoing support system when faced with an injury and struggling with doom-and-gloom isolation.
In their book, Ms. Blau and Dr. Fingerman emphasize the importance of creating and being in environments that foster relationships with consequential strangers. Decades ago when The New York Times erected cubicles for its writers and editors, it destroyed an environment that was conducive to sharing information and fostering camaraderie, prompting me to work from home most days and save the time and effort needed to dress for work and commute. I suspect that when Covid limitations are finally lifted, many more office workers will do the same and sacrifice casual work-based relationships.
As the authors wrote, “Where we live, work, shop, and mingle has everything to do with the weak ties we cultivate, and therefore our quality of life.” As they described a central theme of their book, “Casual acquaintances inspire us to venture beyond our comfort zones.” And until we do, we’ll never know what we might gain from relationships with “people who don’t seem to matter.”
Posted inEssays, happiness|Comments Off on The Benefits of Talking to Strangers
OLYMPIA, Wash. (AP) — Washington Gov. Jay Inslee released updated guidance Monday for gyms and fitness facilities that nearly triples the minimum distance required for patrons exercising indoors, except for those practicing certain team sports.
Starting Aug. 10, instead of the current requirement of six feet of distance between patrons, gyms and facilities in counties in Phase 2 and 3 of the state’s COVID-19 economic reopening plan will now be required to provide 300 square feet — about 17 feet — of distance. The number of people allowed in gyms, fitness facilities and fitness classes will be limited by the size of their space under this guidance, and occupancy in facilities and gyms that are larger than 12,000 square feet will be capped at 25 percent.
In addition, showers, hot tubs, saunas, and tanning beds will be closed, as will steam rooms, squash courts, and racquetball courts. And indoor team sport facilities will be limited for practice and limited competition with no spectators.
Last month, Inslee had initially called for counties in phase two, such as King County, to allow only five people, not including staff, for indoor fitness services at a time. Gyms in phase three counties initially were directed to reduce occupancy to 25% and limit group fitness classes to 10 participants. Those rules were set to take effect last Thursday, but Inslee delayed that implementation in order to work with the fitness industry for clearer guidelines based on the size of the facilities.
Basketball courts, volleyball courts, pickle ball, tennis courts, and other indoor sports facilities at multi-use fitness facilities will be limited to small groups of five, and a minimum of six feet of physical distance between individuals must be maintained at all times.
Patrons won’t have to wear facial coverings while engaged in strenuous exercise, though they must wear them immediately before and immediately after exercise and at all other times while inside fitness facilities. The guidance encourages outdoor locations for fitness training and team sports.
The updated guidance comes a week after Inslee announced the statewide pause for counties looking to advance from their current stage of COVID-19 economic reopening will continue indefinitely.
It’s the second time the pause has been extended since first implemented earlier this month. The extension comes days after Inslee tightened restrictions throughout the state for indoor activities in a further effort to stem a surge in COVID-19 cases.
Seventeen counties are in phase three of a four-part reopening process, 17 counties are currently in phase two and five counties are in a modified phase one of reopening.
As of Monday, there have been more than 58,000 confirmed cases since the pandemic began. Nearly 1,600 people in Washington have died of complications from COVID-19.
For most, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks. But for some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia and death.
Posted inFitness, Health|Comments Off on Gyms will need to triple distance for exercising indoors
Mountain goats, mule deer and black bears all move across the rugged basalt cliffs, forest and grasslands that make up the Klickitat Canyon Conservation Area. Salmon and steelhead swim up the Klickitat River, Washington’s longest wild river, running through the conservation area.
The newly completed conservation area in south-central Washington is expected to protect habitat and lead to a more resilient forest. Conservation groups say this is a big step toward connecting important ecosystems in the area.
“Comprehensive conservation gives [wildlife] the space and the varied landscapes they need to thrive,” said Jay Kosa, spokesperson for the Columbia Land Trust.
The Yakama Nation supported the completion of the conservation area, which lies within its ancestral lands.
“It is important to share the understanding of the importance of enhancing and protecting these significant aquatic and ecological places because a watershed like the Klickitat is the last of its kind,” Yakama Nation Natural Resources Superintendent Phil Rigdon said in a news release.
Kosa said this conservation area will help bridge gaps in the ecosystem.
“If it were to be developed or fragmented by being sold into parcels, it would really interrupt the ability for wildlife to move across the landscape,” Kosa said.
Cherie Kearney, forest conservation director of the Columbia Land Trust, says land connectivity will help wildlife adapt to a changing climate. It gives them easier access to higher elevations as temperatures warm.
“As the temperature warms, there can be places that have gradient; they have topography and diversity, allowing animals to spread out a little bit, incrementally toward new habitat,” Kearney said.
She said the groups will start to manage the area to create forestry jobs and make the area more resistant to wildfire. Kearney said the group will harvest timber more for “conservation forestry,” which includes thinning and some revenue harvest.
“It’ll all be balanced toward creating an older, bigger forest,” she said.
From Barb W. You can watch the Kaiser Permanente’s Senior Caucus at its next webinar on Friday, August 7 from 10-11 AM via Zoom. Chris Fordyce, MD (retired) geriatrician will present a COVID-19 update that will cover the following topics:
KPWA infection rate
Testing, medications and vaccines
Clinic changes
Kids and school
Eliminating structural racism
The webinar will be recorded for those who are unable to attend the live meeting, and her presentation slides will be available the afternoon of August 6.
Information on the webinar link and phone number is below:
“The
100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared”, this is a great film! For those of us who can’t
get out to a theater, you might point out that it’s available through the
Seattle Public Library Kanopy program, and can be streamed
at no cost. If you have an SPL card you can become a Kanopy
member and get access to all their films. Best – Gordon
Reload document 
Open in new tab 
