Skyline Happenings

Published 01/01/24 06:00 AM ET by John LeBoutillier in The Messenger

Like every new year, 2024 will be filled with surprises, especially in the political world. The U.S. presidential election — specifically, the legal, political and behavioral travails of Donald Trump — will of course dominate the news.

With that in mind, here’s what I believe we can expect in the year ahead:

• The U.S. economy will continue to thrive statistically. It is by far the world’s strongest economy, despite public polls showing a large majority of Americans claiming that their “own financial situation” is better than a year ago but the nation’s economy is not. As 2023 ends, consumer confidence has risen and holiday shopping shot through the roof. Thus, expect a lag in attitudes to catch up by mid-2024: A majority of Americans will see the economy more optimistically, which will inure to President Biden’s benefit in November.
• The Biden campaign has tried — but so far failed — to connect Joe Biden to an improving economy. They had the president running around for much of 2023 claiming that “Bidenomics” works. But the audience was still sour on the state of the economy. Clearly, someone high up in Biden World had the idea to pattern their 2024 reelection campaign on Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” 1984 reelection slogan, which focused on an improving economy as a result of “Reaganomics.” The analogy failed because it was drawn too early. However, if the perception of the economy continues to improve, the term “Bidenomics” will return as a key ingredient in the president’s reelection strategy.
• The Republican-led House of Representatives will push the impeachment of President Biden, despite having no evidence of any crimes committed by him. This is a political move enacted at Trump’s behest to even the score and cancel out his two impeachments. Ironically, this move will help Biden in November’s general election.

• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will not be removed, despite looming internal GOP confrontations over government spending and aid to Israel and Ukraine. The House GOP will — yet again — punt and enact a year-long continuing budget resolution to get through the general election. The House GOP Conference will remain divided, with the Freedom Caucus increasing its cries of protest.
• The GOP will lose control of the House in the November election.
• As for the Senate, at least one well-known veteran senator among the group of Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Rick Scott ((R-Fla.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) will get swept out of office this year. West Virginia will switch to a Republican seat, as Gov. Jim Justice is a shoo-in to win the seat currently held by retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D). And Arizona has a possible three-way general election coming, with a Republican and a Democrat running against incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who switched from Democrat to independent. Prediction: The Senate will end up in a 50-50 tie.

• Aid to both Israel and Ukraine will be approved by mid-February.
• The “Big Enchilada” — to use Watergate language — is the tenuous legal situation of Trump. The four indictments and trials loom not only over him but over the Republican nomination process, over the tainted-by-scandal U.S. Supreme Court and, most of all, over the general election. 
• The District of Columbia appeals court and the Supreme Court will rule that Trump is NOT immune from criminal prosecution.
• The Supreme Court will avoid making a decision to bar Trump from appearing on the ballot under the Constitution’s 14th Amendment. It is too controversial; the justices will find a legal off-ramp, and that issue will not be central to the election. 
• Where Trump will run into a life-changing situation is the federal trial currently scheduled to begin March 4 in Washington. Trump is doing all he can to delay this trial because it is highly likely he will be convicted on four felony counts. He is — or should be — deathly afraid of this case, for good reasons.
• Special prosecutor Jack Smith will have much more evidence against Trump in both the January 6 and the Mar-A-Lago cases than the media or the public realize. 
• In the D.C. trial, a majority of the jury — perhaps 10 of the 12 — may be persons of color, not exactly Trump’s base. And Judge Tanya Chutkan is a no-nonsense former public defender with a reputation for being tough; she has sentenced several January 6 convicts to severe sentences in excess of what the prosecution sought.
• Can you envision Donald Trump walking into the D.C. Federal Courthouse, sitting at the defense table for six to seven hours a day with his mouth shut — for eight or more weeks — and then being convicted by the jury and sentenced by this judge? Remember, in a criminal trial the defendant is required to attend. In his numerous civil trials, Trump has come and gone as he pleased; not so in his four upcoming criminal trials.
• Maybe you can see all the way to the moment when the jury comes back with a verdict. Maybe you share the very unlikely belief that Trump can get one juror to hang the jury. The more likely scenario: a guilty verdict and a severe sentencing by Judge Chutkan.
• Trump will exhaust every appeal and delay, as is his right. But eventually those appeals will reach an end. And then will come perhaps the key moment of the 2024 election — and of Trump’s life: a trial. My prediction: Trump will never walk into that trial. He either will become sick and unable to stand trial, or he will make a plea deal to avoid prison.
• A plea deal would fit with Trump’s longtime modus operandi. In civil litigation he is all bluster, and then, at the last minute, he settles. He will do that in this case, too: Negotiate a deal in which he pleads guilty and withdraws from the campaign in return for a guarantee that he will not be sent to prison. Facing three other criminal trials, he may very well agree to a Universal Plea Agreement that keeps him out of prison on all cases in exchange for a guilty plea and an admission of responsibility.
• At that point, Republicans will need to come up with a new presidential nominee. But before then, we will have a few months of primaries and caucuses. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) will do better than expected in Iowa — it will be within single digits — and former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-S.C.) will win New Hampshire’s primary with the help of independents who are allowed to vote in party primaries.
• Beyond presidential politics, Harvard will remove its controversy-engendering president, Claudine Gay — maybe even before this column is published — for repeated acts of plagiarism and for presiding over the trashing of the university’s reputation.
• The Supreme Court will limit the availability of the abortion pill, Mifepristone, which will anger women again just months before the November election. This ruling, following the Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision, will ensure yet another massive women’s turnout — mostly against Republicans — in the November election.
• Former congressman Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) will win the Feb. 13 special congressional election to fill the New York district previously held by the recently expelled George Santos (R-N.Y.). The GOP fumbled this winnable race by taking too long to select a candidate and then picking a minor-leaguer to run against a tough, wily but beatable veteran who previously held the seat. In order to win this special election, Republicans needed to run a near-perfect race but, so far, have been less than mediocre.
• And, finally, a prediction of a “black swan” event: A huge political and moral scandal will shock the U.S., encompassing both political parties. It will further taint the reputation of the intelligence community and, especially, the political class. 
• John LeBoutillier was a Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1981 to 1983. He is a 1976 graduate of Harvard College, a 1979 graduate of Harvard Business School, and the author of “Harvard Hates America” (Gateway Books, 1978).

Thanks to Pam P.

Thanks to Ann M.

An unwelcome start to 2024.

For more photos click here.

Thanks to Put B. – view from their apartment

Thanks to Mary Jane F.

by Frank Brunei in the NYT

Thanks to Mike C. who chose this one out of the group – (click here for the article).

“…. in The Mort Report, Mort Rosenblum despaired: “Too many voters today are easily conned, deeply biased, impervious to fact and bereft of survival instincts. Contrary to myth, frogs leap out of heating pots. Stampeding cattle stop at a cliff edge. Lemmings don’t really commit mass suicide. We’ll find out about Americans in 2024.”

Thanks to Mary M.

Thanks to Pam P.

Hope for a better 2024

On August 1, 2005, I flew as far north as I had ever been, to a barely visible landing strip cleared out of tundra. Ken, the pilot, eased the plane down, unloaded the gear, and left, leaving me alone at the northern edge of the Brooks Range in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Forty five miles from the nearest sign of people, I was the first person to arrive for a seven-day float trip down the Aichilik River to the Beaufort Sea. 

At first, I was nervous; before Ken flew away, he had showed me how to use the shotgun, but we couldn’t find the shells. “In that case, I’d just try and hit the bear with this end,” Ken said, as he thrust the handle toward me. This was my first time in grizzly country so I stayed close to the gear and the shotgun, not that it would help if an omnivorous ursine arrived. As I started to walk and notice the landscape, however, I began to drop my trepidation. I found wolf and caribou tracks in the soft mud by the river. A dab of yellow flew by, a Labrador sulfur butterfly, and landed on a purple Oxytropis. I noticed small purple gentians, yellow cinquefoils, bluish harebells, pinkish valerians, and white louseworts dotting the low growing willow and cotton grass. My first bird was a glaucous gull. 

By the time the next plane arrived, about two hours later, I was feeling more at ease, calmed by the beauty and tenacity of the life around me. (We did eventually see several grizzlies, always at a distance. The most spectacular was a blonde one that sprinted up a steep hill like it was flat. Far worse than the bears were the mosquitoes, which attacked en masse; at one point I killed more than 40 in my tent.)

L: Looking north out the Aichilik River, across the Arctic Plain, to the Beaufort Sea. R: Wolf and Caribou tracks.

This was neither the first nor the last time that what some call the naturalist’s trance had calmed my savage soul. No matter where I am—my backyard, the Cascades, a quiet glen—my focus on what’s around me, the smells and sounds, plants and animals, the expected and unexpected, provides a way for me to slow down, pay attention, and gain perspective. The simple act of taking my mind away from my troubles and leaning in toward what I love is profoundly wonderful and transformative. 

Share

My time in the Arctic came back to me when I was reading Buddy Levy’s Empire of Ice and Stone: The Disastrous and Heroic Voyage of the Karluk.This Arctic Expedition in 1913/14 is famous for the usual reasons: bad weather, bad equipment, and bad planning. The basic story is that the Karlukgot stuck in ice in August in the Beaufort Sea (near where my raft trip ended) and drifted 750 miles west before getting crushed. The crew spent months on the ice and on Wrangell Island, before getting rescued in September 1914. 

At one point, after months of eking out a miserable existence (the typical traveler’s issues of too much and too little, in this case, cold and food, respectively), meteorologist William McKinlay was trail breaking in yet another attempt at survival. Cold, in despair, and deeply upset at a fellow crew member, he came across a “lovely little wildflower.” It immediately gave him a sense of calm. “As long as there is life, there is hope,” he wrote in his journal. He ultimately survived.

I have been trying to think of something deep to write about McKinlay and his experience and I have realized it boils down to a simple thought: hope and courage and renewal can be found in many places. Sometimes the circumstances that enable us to recognize them are dire but often, and fortunately, they are not. Coming to the end of yet another troubling year of politics and war and climate change and tragedy, I sincerely wish all of you lovely little wildflowers of hope in whatever guise they arrive. 

By David Horsey

Seattle Times cartoonist

Hamas terrorists’ vicious Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israeli civilians took 1,200 lives, making it, in proportion to Israel’s small population, far worse than the 9/11 attacks on the United States in 2001. Attendees at a music festival were slaughtered. Women were raped, parents were murdered in front of their children. Children were murdered in front of their parents. Two-hundred-and-forty hostages were dragged away to an uncertain fate.

On that dreadful day, Israel certainly held the moral high ground and, other than their cold-hearted enemies in the Islamic world and the pro-Palestinian activists who lauded Hamas killers as freedom fighters, Israelis had international sympathy and support.

Then the assault on Gaza began.

It is utterly human to want revenge in the face of atrocities like those committed by Hamas and it is the right of any country to respond to an attack, but the Israeli bombing campaign that has stretched on relentlessly for 11 weeks seems drastically out of proportion. It is being cited as one of the most destructive military actions in history, according to experts, as bad as, or worse than, Syria’s decimation of Aleppo over four years of civil conflict or Russia’s pummeling of Mariupol during its invasion of Ukraine.

As many as 20,000 Palestinians may have been killed so far, according to Gaza authorities, and nearly the whole population has been displaced with many now suffering on the edge of starvation.

All but one of Israel’s allies have backed away from their early support, leaving the United States the country’s lone friend and primary arms supplier. Yet, even the U.S. administration appears to be shocked by what Israel’s military and its right-wing government have unleashed. President Joe Biden has acknowledged that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” is destroying the legitimacy of Israel’s hunt for Hamas in the eyes of the world.

Gaza is in rubble. The people who live there are bereft. And the Israeli government may have, in the long run, seriously harmed Israel’s reputation and future security by showing no pity, no restraint and no remorse.

See more of David Horsey’s cartoons at: st.news/davidhorsey

Thanks to Fran S.

Thanks to Mike C. – letter from a Skyline Resident

Re: “Dr. Abe Bergman treated Seattle and the nation” [Dec. 13, Opinion]:

The editorial recognized Dr. Abe Bergman’s formidable achievements as a child advocate but failed to pass on his oft-repeated advice to all those who advocate for the politically powerless.

He was my principal mentor and often included these aphorisms in a talk, or when giving advice to colleagues and residents:

1. “All is not hopeless if we stop acting like bleating sheep.”

2. “Individuals can be more powerful than bureaucratic organizations.”

3. “Stop moaning and groaning about the fate of kids and learn how to be effective: Build coalitions; work with media; consult lobbyists.”

4. “The greatest battles are waged against those supposedly on our side.”

5. “Work on issues you care about, that are important, where a solution is possible. Pick the right goal: You seek a world where no children starve, I seek a world where fewer children starve.” (Attributed to Albert Camus.)

6. And what I believe was the core of his perspective: “Indignation without action is froth!” (Attributed to William Gladstone.)

Edgar K. Marcuse, M.D., MPH, Seattle, emeritus professor, pediatrics, University of Washington

Thanks to Sybil-Ann

from Ralph Waldo Emerson

“The purpose of life is not to be happy. It is to be useful, to be honorable, to be compassionate, to have it make some difference that you have lived and lived well.”

Thanks to Mary M.

The PNC Christmas Price Index^® is an annual tradition which shows the current cost for one set of each of the gifts given in the song “The Twelve Days of Christmas.”

It is similar to the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which measures the changing prices of goods and services like housing, food, clothing, transportation and more that reflect the spending habits of the average American.

The goods and services in the PNC Christmas Price Index® are far more whimsical, of course. And most years, the price changes closely mirror those in the U.S. Consumer Price Index.

It’s a fun way to measure consumer spending and trends in the economy. So, even if Pipers Piping or Geese-a-Laying didn’t make your gift list this year, you can still learn a lot by checking out why their prices have increased or decreased over the years.

Click here to see the cost of each of the 12 items!

DAN RATHER AND ELLIOT KIRSCHNER

Another circle around the sun…

A time to take stock, and fill stockings. 
To mark abundant candlelight, and dwindling sunlight. 
To look backward, and forward, and backward once again.

We remember those who have passed.
And the headlines that captured our attention.
People and moments now rooted in history.

There are lists, so many lists. Of what to buy, and for whom. 
Of the best movies, best books, and best music. 
There are resolutions for the future, even though we know most will not be kept. 
Regardless, we have hope. 

But perhaps most important of all, the end of the year should be a time for gratitude. 

For if we are true to ourselves, we know that much of what we were able to accomplish in the year that is ending could not have occurred without the love and support of others. 

We humans are social creatures, and most of us would not last very long on our own. Science has shown that social support improves both our health and life expectancy. 

We rely on each other for the basic necessities — like sustenance and shelter. Unlike other animals, who emerge from the womb able to walk or swim, we are largely helpless for many years, depending on others to nurture us. 

That is one definition of what it means to be human. 

The very bonds of our common humanity — our intellectual, spiritual, emotional, and moral lives — are forged in relation to others. 

We thank our teachers, formal and otherwise, who guide our learning through life. 
We thank those whose jobs it is to keep us safe, even at danger to themselves. 
We thank the helpers, in every nook and cranny of this great nation and broader world, who lighten the burdens of others. 
We thank the artists who inspire us. And make us laugh and cry. 
We thank those who work in the shadows, without whom there would be no light. 
We thank coworkers who urge us forward. 
We thank friends and family who provide support on days of struggle and heartbreak.

And we thank you, the Steady community. In a world of great need, it is a gift to have a place for empathy and understanding. 

When we think of A Reason To Smile, with December quickly receding along with 2023, we think of all the reasons to say thank you and all the people worth thanking. 

Thanks to Sybil-Ann

Thanks to Mike C. and Bob P.

From the Washington Post By Catherine Rampell

Hide your children, hide your wives. A radical force is sweeping the nation, threatening to destroy everything that God-fearing Americans hold dear.

That threat, according to Fox News? Tap-dancing, one of the most quintessentially American art forms there is.

Need something to talk about? Text us for thought-provoking opinions that can break any awkward silence.

Last week, first lady Jill Biden shared a festive holiday video of tap troupe Dorrance Dance performing their swingin’ spin on “The Nutcracker,” set to a jazz arrangement by Duke Ellington and Billy Strayhorn.

Festooned with wide smiles, whimsical headpieces and a healthy helping of sequins, the dancers percuss their way around the White House. Familiar characters from the “Nutcracker” — such as a rodent king and the young heroine Clara— sprinkle kinetic joy through the East Wing’s Christmas trees. The video opens and closes with saucy flourishes from “Sugar Rum Cherry” (performed by co-choreographer Josette Wiggan). (continued)

Thanks to Pam P.

Thanks to Ed M.