Skyline Happenings

Thanks to Mike C.

Yes, Nate Silver has recently taken on an advisory role with a company that has connections to Peter Thiel. Here are the key details:

Nate Silver’s New Role

Nate Silver, the well-known statistician and election forecaster, has been appointed as an advisor to Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform.

Polymarket’s Connection to Peter Thiel

Polymarket has received significant backing from investors, including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. Peter Thiel is a prominent venture capitalist and entrepreneur known for his investments in technology companies and his involvement in conservative politics.

Context and Implications

• Polymarket is a leading platform for election betting, having seen over $265 million in bets on the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
• The platform is not accessible to U.S. users due to regulatory restrictions but conducts trades internationally.
• Silver’s appointment has raised some ethical concerns among observers, including potential conflicts of interest and market manipulation risks.
• This move comes after Silver left FiveThirtyEight and started his own Substack newsletter.

Broader Perspective

Silver’s association with a company backed by Thiel has led to some criticism and skepticism, particularly from those who view it as potentially compromising his objectivity in election forecasting. However, Silver maintains that his work remains unbiased and that his track record of accurate predictions speaks for itself.It’s important to note that while there is a connection between Silver and a Thiel-backed company, this does not necessarily imply any direct collaboration between Silver and Thiel themselves.

By James Carville in the NYT

Mr. Carville is a veteran of Democratic presidential campaigns, leading Bill Clinton’s in 1992. He is a consultant to American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, and a co-host of the “Politics War Room” podcast.

I hate to say it, but Donald Trump remains the singular most recognized name in the United States. Since he moseyed down that golden escalator in 2015, he has dominated the American airwaves and algorithms. Whether they hate him or love him, people know exactly what Mr. Trump’s shtick is.

This is why, despite every terrible consequence of his presidency, Mr. Trump’s approval rating has never much strayed from the mid- to low 40s for nearly a decade. No matter his divisive policies, Covid, the indictments, who his No. 2 was or whatever bile he spewed on social media, the jury of public opinion on Donald Trump is settled.

This is precisely Vice President Kamala Harris’s greatest political advantage in the next two months.

Since the early 1990s, political history has shown us that when a popular incumbent president is not on the ballot, we have a de facto change election. If Bill Clinton prevailed in 1992 on a message of change versus more of the same, if Barack Obama won in 2008 on the audacity of hope and even if Mr. Trump eked it out in 2016 on a blank promise to revive a relic of America, 2024 will be won by who is fresh and who is rotten. It’s quite simple: The shepherd of tomorrow wins the sheep.

But what’s not simple: We have an incumbent vice president running against a former president in a change election. From Labor Day to Election Day, to clinch victory and drive a nail into Mr. Trump’s political career, there are three imperatives Ms. Harris must pursue successfully to become the certified fresh candidate at the ballot box in November.

1. Help Mr. Trump hurt himself in the debate(s).

If there’s one thing Americans love, it’s a train wreck. That’s why we’re addicted to “Dance Moms” and the “Real Housewives” franchise. Just over two months ago, we witnessed one in real time, and it led to the humane revolt against a sitting president’s re-election campaign by his own party. I guarantee a lot of voters are salivating for a second round. Only this time, Mr. Trump must be the train wreck, and it’s on Ms. Harris to lay the tracks.

I’ve always believed that one good joke is worth 100 fact-checks. By and large, Ms. Harris is diverging from the normal fear-provoking way of going about Mr. Trump; instead of building him up as a threat to America, she’s getting voters chuckling and nodding by saying of the former president and his crew, “They are out of their minds.” People smile when they think a politician has her opponent’s number, and they like that she’s calling him weird and unserious and painting a broader picture of Mr. Trump as a tired old tapestry. And we already have some indication her team is prepping her to do just this.

In the Sept. 10 debate, Ms. Harris must enable exactly what his campaign is scared to death of: letting Trump be Trump. She should let him talk over her. Not just let him but goad him into spouting insane conspiracy theories about the previous election. She should use her sense of humor at key moments to get under his skin and show he’s not getting to her. And she should welcome the personal attacks as a badge of honor. And each time, no matter how many times he does it, respond with this refrain: It’s the same old tired playbook, and I’m focused on a new way forward.

2. Break from President Biden on policy.

Mr. Biden has been one of the most consequential presidents in U.S. history, pulling us back from the fangs of inflation and proliferating disease, enacting bounds of legislative progress even in political gridlock. But Mr. Biden’s not in the race. To be the certified fresh candidate, Ms. Harris must clearly and decisively break from Mr. Biden on a set of policy priorities she believes would define her presidency.

Here’s an idea: Do it one day in a swing state, just a hair after the debate. Hold a rally. Put out a broad list of “new way forward” policies that detail why she is breaking from the sitting president on the given issues and what change would deliver to the American people. And after that rally, do a news conference on it, so media organizations stop cranking their clamshells about a lack of access. Don’t run from your differences with the president. Embrace them, respectfully and honestly.

For Ms. Harris to break from Mr. Biden more explicitly than she has done so far would not be an insult to his legacy, just as Mr. Biden’s objectively more progressive policy agenda was not an insult to Mr. Obama’s. Rather, it shows even more sharply that she is passionate about her own ideas and represents change rather than more of the same.

3. Display a clear growth mind-set from the 2020 Democratic primaries.

Ms. Harris’s political dance will grow more complicated before Election Day. At the same time she must break from Mr. Biden on some policy measures, she has one lingering liability she will not be able to outrun: the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination campaign, in which she and a gaggle of candidates favored more exotic positions within the Democratic Party. As last week’s CNN interview with Ms. Harris showed, this will be a consistent plotline deployed at her throughout this campaign. It’s vital that she give the same answer every time to these attacks. The retort can be simple: I learned from my time governing in the White House. These are my positions. Take it or leave it.

The good news is, by doing just this, Ms. Harris would be demonstrating a capacity that Mr. Trump lacks: a growth mind-set. (He just committed a blaring flip-flop on Florida’s abortion referendum — just the latest in his many reversals on reproductive freedom.) Mr. Clinton famously said, “When people are feeling insecure, they’d rather have someone who is strong and wrong rather than somebody who is weak and right.” After nearly a decade of dealing with a man who views himself as perfect in every way, a leader who can openly admit a change in her understanding would feel like a breath of spring air for a lot of voters.

Throughout my nearly 40 years in the campaign war rooms, through every election loss and victory, one thing has remained consistent: The most thunderous sound in politics is the boom of a single page as it turns from one chapter to the next. This November, will we drag ourselves back again, succumbing to politics of fear and anger, or instead do the most audacious thing we can and once more turn the page to a new chapter in American life? I know that Kamala Harris represents that next chapter. If she stays fresh, soon the American people will, too.