Thanks to Mike C. for sending this in.
By Mike Baker in the NYT
SEATTLE — Facing the nation’s first widespread coronavirus outbreak, some of Washington State’s top leaders quietly gathered on a Sunday morning last March for an urgent strategy session.
The virus had been rampaging through a nursing home in the Seattle suburbs. By the time the meeting began, the region had recorded most of the nation’s first 19 deaths. New cases were surfacing by the hour.
As the meeting’s presentation got to the fifth slide, the room grew somber. The numbers showed a variety of potential outcomes, but almost every scenario was a blue line pointing exponentially upward.
“My God, what on earth is going to happen here?” the King County executive, Dow Constantine, said he was thinking as those in the room, increasingly uneasy about meeting in person, left the pastries untouched.
That gathering, three days before the World Health Organization declared a pandemic last March 11, set off a rush to contain the virus that included some of the country’s earliest orders to cancel large events, shutter restaurants and close schools, all in the hope that the dire possibilities in front of them would not come to pass.
One year later, the Seattle area has the lowest death rate of the 20 largest metropolitan regions in the country. If the rest of the United States had kept pace with Seattle, the nation could have avoided more than 300,000 coronavirus deaths.
During a year in which the White House downplayed the virus and other political leaders clashed over how to contain it, Seattle’s success illustrates the value of unified and timely strategies: Although the region’s public health experts and politicians grappled behind the scenes about how to best manage the virus, they came together to present a united front to the public. And the public largely complied.
“We could not afford to have mixed messages,” said Jenny Durkan, Seattle’s mayor.
The restrictions that have been in place off and on for the better part of a year have brought widespread disruption to lives and the economy. But as governors elsewhere have cited the economy as a reason to ease lockdowns, Seattle’s success showed that an alternative pathway was doable: Amid widespread economic turmoil, the state’s unemployment rate has been about average nationally, outperforming some places that have pressed ahead with wider reopenings, including Arizona and Texas.
There are numerous factors that have shaped the trajectory of the pandemic both locally and nationally. In part, public health experts said, Seattle may have benefited from its demographics: a healthy population living in small households and a lot of workers able to do their jobs from home. The city may have also have won more public support for the crackdowns from the shock of experiencing the nation’s first publicized deaths. The high humidity may have helped, scientists say, although the cold weather and gray skies probably did not.
Researchers said Seattle also profited from its network of research and philanthropic organizations focused on global health, politicians willing to listen to them, businesses that emptied their offices early and residents who repeatedly indicated a willingness to upend their lives to save others. Even as the year wore on, and the region’s case numbers were among the lowest in the nation, a survey found that Washington residents were still the most likely to stay home for Thanksgiving.
Coronavirus deaths in the largest U.S. metro areas
| METRO AREA | POPULATION | TOTAL DEATHS | DEATHS PER 100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City area | 20 million | 58,882 | 294 |
| Los Angeles | 13.2 million | 26,559 | 201 |
| Chicago | 9.5 million | 16,283 | 172 |
| Dallas | 7.6 million | 9,640 | 126 |
| Houston | 7.1 million | 7,484 | 106 |
| Washington, D.C. | 6.3 million | 6,947 | 111 |
| Miami | 6.2 million | 10,659 | 173 |
| Philadelphia | 6.1 million | 11,476 | 188 |
| Atlanta | 6 million | 7,605 | 126 |
| Phoenix | 4.9 million | 10,165 | 205 |
| Boston | 4.9 million | 10,728 | 220 |
| San Francisco | 4.7 million | 3,188 | 67 |
| Inland Empire, Calif. | 4.7 million | 7,139 | 154 |
| Detroit | 4.3 million | 8,737 | 202 |
| Seattle | 4 million | 2,560 | 64 |
| Minneapolis-St.Paul | 3.7 million | 4,121 | 113 |
| Tampa-St.Petersburg, Fla. | 3.2 million | 4,115 | 129 |
| Denver | 3 million | 3,162 | 107 |
| St. Louis | 2.8 million | 4,852 | 173 |
| Baltimore | 2.8 million | 3,475 | 124 |
Data is as of March 10, 2021. Metro areas are bigger than the city limits of a given place, and often include the surrounding suburbs and exurbs.