The Surprising Place Analysts Look to for Election Forecasting
By Ethan Singer in the NYT (Thanks to Tim B.)
Political polls, betting markets and statistical forecasts have become ubiquitous as November approaches. But there’s one predictive tool you may have missed: primary elections in Washington state, which took place last month.
It’s an indicator that election nerds pay particular attention to, for good reason: The general election results in the state a few months later tend to move in the same direction — whether becoming more Republican or more Democratic — as the rest of the country.
This year, results from Washington state are cause for some optimism among Democrats. They suggest a national environment somewhat similar to 2020, when Joe Biden outgained Donald J. Trump by 4.5 percentage points in the national popular vote and Democrats retained the House.
Here’s what to know about one of the lesser-known bellwethers of U.S. elections:
Why Washington?
Unlike the primaries of other states, Washington’s are strong predictors of its general elections. This is true for a few reasons.
- Washington has a top-two system in which all candidates, regardless of party, compete on the same ballot, with the top two advancing to the general election. This incentivizes candidates to campaign harder, to ensure they’re on the final ballot in November. And it motivates voters to participate rather than risk having their preferred candidate — or even their party — knocked off the ballot if they don’t vote.
- Voting is conducted almost completely by mail, and voters have almost three weeks to vote, which lowers the bar for participation. (Primaries that rely mostly or exclusively on in-person Election Day voting are more likely to attract only the most engaged sliver of the electorate.)
- The primary date is usually in August or September, much later than most other primaries, leaving less time for moods to change before the November election. (click on Page 2 to continue)