by Robert Reich in Substack
Friends,
Not since Theodore Roosevelt ran against William Howard Taft in 1912 have voters been able to weigh the records of two men who have done the job of president.
The mystery is why Americans have more positive views of Donald J. Trump’s policies than they do of Joe Biden’s.
You and I both know that polls this far before an election are almost worthless. Even on the eve of an election, they’re mostly baloney. (Polling generated by HuffPost on Election Day 2016 concluded that Hillary Clinton had a 98 percent chance of beating Trump.)
Nonetheless, I confess that last week’s polls — The New York Times/Siena poll of seven swing states showing Joe Biden losing to Trump due to the economy, the FT/Michigan Ross survey finding voters trust Trump more on the economy than Biden (43 percent to 35 percent), Gallup’s showing that Americans’ confidence in Biden to do the right thing for the economy is among the lowest Gallup has measured for any president since 2001, and a Politico–Morning Consult poll finding Trump and Biden statistically tied on who did more to boost infrastructure — gave me pause.
When this many polls show the same thing, the thing they show deserves attention.
So let me attend to it.
First, I’ll give you the facts. Then I’ll try to explain why the facts aren’t getting through to voters. Finally, what I believe Biden and his allies must do.
1. The facts.
Under Trump the economy lost 2.9 million jobs. Under Biden, it has gained 15 million, so far.
Under Trump, the unemployment rate rose by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3 percent. Under Biden, unemployment has remained under 4 percent for the longest stretch in over 50 years. Working-age women are being employed at a record rate, and wages are rising for American workers.
In 2016, candidate Trump campaigned against the trade deficit with China. He called it “theft” and even used the term “rape” to describe it. In 2016, the U.S. goods trade deficit with the China was near $350 billion. In the first three years of the Trump administration (before COVID-19), it worsened, averaging almost $379 billion per year.
Under Biden, America’s trade deficit with China has improved dramatically — falling by $103 billion, or 27 percent, to $279 billion. It’s the lowest bilateral deficit in goods since 2010.
Under Biden, the stock market has soared. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 for the first time in history, exceeding the market’s annualized return under Trump.
Under Trump, the national debt rose from about $19.9 trillion to about $27.8 trillion, an increase of about 39 percent, and more than in any other four-year presidential term. It happened mainly because of Trump’s enormous tax cuts for wealthy Americans and big corporations. (continued)