Published 01/01/24 06:00 AM ET by John LeBoutillier in The Messenger
Like every new year, 2024 will be filled with surprises, especially in the political world. The U.S. presidential election — specifically, the legal, political and behavioral travails of Donald Trump — will of course dominate the news.
With that in mind, here’s what I believe we can expect in the year ahead:
- The U.S. economy will continue to thrive statistically. It is by far the world’s strongest economy, despite public polls showing a large majority of Americans claiming that their “own financial situation” is better than a year ago but the nation’s economy is not. As 2023 ends, consumer confidence has risen and holiday shopping shot through the roof. Thus, expect a lag in attitudes to catch up by mid-2024: A majority of Americans will see the economy more optimistically, which will inure to President Biden’s benefit in November.
- The Biden campaign has tried — but so far failed — to connect Joe Biden to an improving economy. They had the president running around for much of 2023 claiming that “Bidenomics” works. But the audience was still sour on the state of the economy. Clearly, someone high up in Biden World had the idea to pattern their 2024 reelection campaign on Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” 1984 reelection slogan, which focused on an improving economy as a result of “Reaganomics.” The analogy failed because it was drawn too early. However, if the perception of the economy continues to improve, the term “Bidenomics” will return as a key ingredient in the president’s reelection strategy.
- The Republican-led House of Representatives will push the impeachment of President Biden, despite having no evidence of any crimes committed by him. This is a political move enacted at Trump’s behest to even the score and cancel out his two impeachments. Ironically, this move will help Biden in November’s general election.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will not be removed, despite looming internal GOP confrontations over government spending and aid to Israel and Ukraine. The House GOP will — yet again — punt and enact a year-long continuing budget resolution to get through the general election. The House GOP Conference will remain divided, with the Freedom Caucus increasing its cries of protest.
- The GOP will lose control of the House in the November election.
- As for the Senate, at least one well-known veteran senator among the group of Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Rick Scott ((R-Fla.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) will get swept out of office this year. West Virginia will switch to a Republican seat, as Gov. Jim Justice is a shoo-in to win the seat currently held by retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D). And Arizona has a possible three-way general election coming, with a Republican and a Democrat running against incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who switched from Democrat to independent. Prediction: The Senate will end up in a 50-50 tie.
- Aid to both Israel and Ukraine will be approved by mid-February.
- The “Big Enchilada” — to use Watergate language — is the tenuous legal situation of Trump. The four indictments and trials loom not only over him but over the Republican nomination process, over the tainted-by-scandal U.S. Supreme Court and, most of all, over the general election.
- The District of Columbia appeals court and the Supreme Court will rule that Trump is NOT immune from criminal prosecution.
- The Supreme Court will avoid making a decision to bar Trump from appearing on the ballot under the Constitution’s 14th Amendment. It is too controversial; the justices will find a legal off-ramp, and that issue will not be central to the election.
- Where Trump will run into a life-changing situation is the federal trial currently scheduled to begin March 4 in Washington. Trump is doing all he can to delay this trial because it is highly likely he will be convicted on four felony counts. He is — or should be — deathly afraid of this case, for good reasons.
- Special prosecutor Jack Smith will have much more evidence against Trump in both the January 6 and the Mar-A-Lago cases than the media or the public realize.
- In the D.C. trial, a majority of the jury — perhaps 10 of the 12 — may be persons of color, not exactly Trump’s base. And Judge Tanya Chutkan is a no-nonsense former public defender with a reputation for being tough; she has sentenced several January 6 convicts to severe sentences in excess of what the prosecution sought.
- Can you envision Donald Trump walking into the D.C. Federal Courthouse, sitting at the defense table for six to seven hours a day with his mouth shut — for eight or more weeks — and then being convicted by the jury and sentenced by this judge? Remember, in a criminal trial the defendant is required to attend. In his numerous civil trials, Trump has come and gone as he pleased; not so in his four upcoming criminal trials.
- Maybe you can see all the way to the moment when the jury comes back with a verdict. Maybe you share the very unlikely belief that Trump can get one juror to hang the jury. The more likely scenario: a guilty verdict and a severe sentencing by Judge Chutkan.
- Trump will exhaust every appeal and delay, as is his right. But eventually those appeals will reach an end. And then will come perhaps the key moment of the 2024 election — and of Trump’s life: a trial. My prediction: Trump will never walk into that trial. He either will become sick and unable to stand trial, or he will make a plea deal to avoid prison.
- A plea deal would fit with Trump’s longtime modus operandi. In civil litigation he is all bluster, and then, at the last minute, he settles. He will do that in this case, too: Negotiate a deal in which he pleads guilty and withdraws from the campaign in return for a guarantee that he will not be sent to prison. Facing three other criminal trials, he may very well agree to a Universal Plea Agreement that keeps him out of prison on all cases in exchange for a guilty plea and an admission of responsibility.
- At that point, Republicans will need to come up with a new presidential nominee. But before then, we will have a few months of primaries and caucuses. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) will do better than expected in Iowa — it will be within single digits — and former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-S.C.) will win New Hampshire’s primary with the help of independents who are allowed to vote in party primaries.
- Beyond presidential politics, Harvard will remove its controversy-engendering president, Claudine Gay — maybe even before this column is published — for repeated acts of plagiarism and for presiding over the trashing of the university’s reputation.
- The Supreme Court will limit the availability of the abortion pill, Mifepristone, which will anger women again just months before the November election. This ruling, following the Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision, will ensure yet another massive women’s turnout — mostly against Republicans — in the November election.
- Former congressman Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) will win the Feb. 13 special congressional election to fill the New York district previously held by the recently expelled George Santos (R-N.Y.). The GOP fumbled this winnable race by taking too long to select a candidate and then picking a minor-leaguer to run against a tough, wily but beatable veteran who previously held the seat. In order to win this special election, Republicans needed to run a near-perfect race but, so far, have been less than mediocre.
- And, finally, a prediction of a “black swan” event: A huge political and moral scandal will shock the U.S., encompassing both political parties. It will further taint the reputation of the intelligence community and, especially, the political class.
- John LeBoutillier was a Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1981 to 1983. He is a 1976 graduate of Harvard College, a 1979 graduate of Harvard Business School, and the author of “Harvard Hates America” (Gateway Books, 1978).