by Katelyn Jetelina in Your Friendly Epidemiologist
Ed note: This is likely more that you want to know, but it’s an excellent summary of what we know and still don’t know.
Six years ago today, I put my baby in a camping carrier, strapped her on, opened my laptop on my dining room table, and started typing as fast as I could. I couldn’t believe how little communication existed that was timely, understandable, and actionable, with the humility and honesty the public deserved. So I tried to fill that gap, bringing my fellow faculty, staff, and students along for the Covid-19 journey in real time, signing every email the same way: Love, Your Local Epidemiologist. I told my husband I would only have to do this for six weeks. Surely someone would fill this gap… The rest is a blur (with many lessons learned along the way.)
March 22, 2020 during the lockdown. Strapped the baby in order to work from home. The start of YLE.
A lot has changed since then. I don’t do many deep dives on Covid-19 anymore because the landscape has dramatically changed for the better, but also because, honestly, it brings back some overwhelming emotions. But this anniversary matters not only so you can protect yourself from this virus that is still circulating, and not only to honor the 1.5 million people who died, but also because this moment deserves serious reflection.
So, six years later, this is where we stand.
A lot has changed, and continues to do so.
Covid-19 is no longer the third leading cause of death. In fact, it now carries roughly the same severity as the flu. While flu is nothing to brush off, this virus not being a top killer is genuine relief.
Data from CDC; Annotated by Your Local Epidemiologist.
Even better news: Peaks are getting smaller and smaller. Each successive wave has been lower than the last, a pattern reflected in almost every metric, including hospitalizations (see below). This isn’t surprising: as our collective immunity builds, the virus has a harder time breaking through. SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve along the same narrow path, which is unusual but very helpful in reducing the number of people with the disease. The Covid-19 cousins we call coronaviruses are now responsible for the common cold, and there’s a hypothesis that this virus may eventually follow the same path. We are clearly not there yet, as hospitalization rates tell us, but the trajectory is meaningful.
Covid-19 Hospitalizations per 100,000. Source: CDC; Annotated by Your Local Epidemiologist.
Interestingly, seasonality has recently shifted. We now reliably see two waves each year: one in winter, one in summer. But nationally over the past two years, the summer wave has been larger than the winter wave (see above). We don’t know why.
Unfortunately, vaccination rates continue to fall. Roughly 3.5 million fewer older Americans were vaccinated this year compared to last year. That means 3.5 million people in the highest-risk group are now less protected from a largely preventable disease. With all the federal vaccine confusion, I expect this to continue to decline. (continued on Page 2 or here)