Katelyn Jetelina @yourlocalepidemiologist
Every summer since Covid-19 arrived, we have had a wave. And lately, summer waves are larger than winter ones (but continue to decline in severity due to immunity). Here’s where things stand.
What’s the current Covid situation? Levels remain very, very low. There may be a slight increase in some areas if you squint closely at the data (like in Texas and Florida, and maybe the Midwest), but it’s not showing up across all metrics. In other words, we’re not in a wave yet.
The Cicada variant (BA.3.2) received some attention a few weeks ago but has been circulating for some time without making much of an impact. The growing variant is XFG, which is still a descendant of Omicron.
Should I get a spring vaccine? The recommendation stands: vulnerable individuals, particularly those over 65, should still get both a fall and spring vaccine. Year over year, vaccination continues to provide 50–60% additional protection for high-risk individuals compared to those who skip it. If you’ve been trying to time a shot before the next wave, that window may be approaching.
Will we have a Covid-19 vaccine this fall? Yes, I think so, but the path to get there will be bumpy.
Think of our annual respiratory vaccine rollout as a giant domino setup. When the first domino falls—usually in February—the rest follow in a smooth, synchronized sequence, ending with shots in arms by early fall.
Last week, external advisors to FDA met to recommend an updated strain for this fall’s vaccine and voted to use the XFG strain. This differs from the WHO’s recommendation (LP.8.1). Strain differences between the U.S. and WHO aren’t entirely unusual—the U.S. typically targets the closest-matching strain for precision, while the WHO prioritizes broader coverage to accommodate countries with less flexibility to update quickly. Immunologically, the U.S. approach makes more sense. (continued on Page 2 or here)